5. Hon Dr NICK SMITH (National—Nelson) Link to this
to the Minister responsible for Climate Change Issues
Can he confirm that when the climate change Minister said in 2002 that “New Zealand will be a net seller of credits, with a positive balance of about 11 million tons of carbon dioxide equivalent a year. At a world price of say $20 a tonne, that would be $220 million a year, net, into the economy.”, the Government was expecting a $1.1 billion surplus over the 5 years to 2012 from the Kyoto Protocol?
Hon DAVID PARKERHon Dr Nick Smith Link to this
Is it not a telling sign of how badly this Government’s sustainability programme has failed that Treasury is now forecasting a $967 million deficit—a figure snuck out after the House rose last year—or a $2 billion deterioration from that which the Government promised just 5 years ago?
Treasury estimates are updated monthly. The November update was as the member said, but I would note that the quantity in tonnes that is used in that estimate of 45 million tonnes does not take into account the emissions trading scheme.
Hon Dr Nick Smith Link to this
How is it that since last year when the Prime Minister’s statement to Parliament mentioned “sustainability” 39 times, and when she has said the biggest issue of sustainability is climate change, in that same year New Zealand’s Kyoto liability has deteriorated from $560 million to $967 million; and does that not prove that the sustainability talk was all hot air?
The liability for the first commitment period of course will not be known with certainty until the end of that commitment period. I am confident that the policies the Government put in place during last year has our emissions’ profile tracking downwards rather than upwards.
Hon Dr Nick Smith Link to this
Does it not seem ironic that in the year in which sustainability and climate change was the No. 1 issue for the Government, in fact over 15 million trees, net, were lost in New Zealand—a higher figure than for any year since records began in 1951, and does that not simply again confirm the failure of this Government’s climate change policies?
No, it does not. Of course, the emissions trading scheme cannot affect rates of deforestation until it starts. Obviously, it did not start to take effect until 1 January this year, and I am confident it will be effective in curbing rates of deforestation.
Moana MackeyWhat does the Minister estimate the effect of the emissions trading scheme will be on the current Ministry for the Environment estimate of a Kyoto deficit of 45 million tonnes for the period to 2012?
Treasury figures, as I said, do not take into account the effect of the emissions trading scheme, and the estimate without that being in the calculations is a deficit of 45 million tonnes to 2012. My estimate of where it will get to during that period as a consequence of the emissions trading scheme and other initiatives, is a deficit of around 25 million tonnes, which is a substantial improvement on the 45 million tonne figure.
Hon Dr Nick Smith Link to this
Can the Minister confirm private sector estimates that New Zealand’s net emissions in 2007 will be the worst ever because of the chainsaw massacre triggered by this Government’s forestry policies; and that because of the low lake levels and drought, this year there will be, with the high use of thermal power, even higher emissions—
Hon Trevor MallardHon Dr Nick Smith Link to this
Oh, he is desperate. [ Interruption] The Minister for the Environment is concerned about Tame Iti.
Madam SPEAKERHon Dr Nick Smith Link to this
I can see, Trevor, why you want to change the topic from the environment.
Please be seated. This is creating disorder. If the member interjects again in that way he will be asked to leave the Chamber. Would the member please complete his question.
Hon Dr Nick Smith Link to this
Can the Minister confirm private sector estimates that the emissions in 2007 will be the highest ever because of the chainsaw massacre that occurred in respect of forestry, and that with the drought and the increased use of thermal generation projected for this year, 2008 will see a further record increase; and why should anybody take this Government seriously on climate change when it will have 9 consecutive years of record increases in emissions?
The deforestation emissions of 2007 were driven as much by the change in the relative economics of dairying compared with forestry as anything else, so they are not a consequence of Government policy but just a change in the relative value of different products. As I said, those deforestation emissions are expected to go down quite markedly this year. In respect of electricity-related emissions, I can tell the member that they did go down a lot last year. What happens with them this year depends in large part on how much water we have in our hydro catchments, because if we do not have much water in our hydro catchments we have to burn more fossil fuels in our thermal stations. That said, the 300-and-so megawatts of additional generation capacity that is currently under construction is all renewable, and none of it will produce additional greenhouse gas emissions.