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Recession, Australia—Predictions

Thursday 10 February 2011 Hansard source (external site)

Cunliffe6. Hon DAVID CUNLIFFE (Labour—New Lynn) Link to this
to the Minister of Finance

Does he stand by his answer to question 7 yesterday, suggesting that Australia is headed for a double-dip recession?

JoyceHon STEVEN JOYCE (Associate Minister of Finance) Link to this

Despite relatively strong growth in the first part of last year, Australia’s growth slowed to just 0.2 percent in the September quarter. There are high levels of household debt and Australia’s consumer and housing markets are slowing down quite significantly. Of course, what the Minister omitted to say yesterday was that Australia never had an initial recession, unlike New Zealand, which, under the Labour Government, went into a recession almost a year before the global financial crisis even hit.

CunliffeHon David Cunliffe Link to this

In light of the Minister’s answer, can he tell the House when did Australia first go into recession, following the onset of the global financial crisis?

JoyceHon STEVEN JOYCE Link to this

I answered that in the previous answer to the question. However, I point out that the reason that Australia did not have the first recession was that it did not have the Labour Government we had in New Zealand for 9 years, and I suggest there is a strong correlation between the two.

CunliffeHon David Cunliffe Link to this

l would normally do this at the end of the session, but as it relates directly to the point made by the Minister, I seek leave to table a statement on monetary policy by the Reserve Bank of Australia that was issued just days ago and shows forecasts of strong, positive economic growth for the next 5 years.

SmithMr SPEAKER Link to this

Leave is sought to table that document. Is there any objection? There is objection.

TremainChris Tremain Link to this

What reports has the Minister seen on the reasons for New Zealand’s most recent recession in 2008?

JoyceHon STEVEN JOYCE Link to this

New Zealand went into a recession—

HughesHon Darren Hughes Link to this

I raise a point of order, Mr Speaker. This question set down by David Cunliffe is about an Australian double-dip recession, and the supplementary question is about a recession in New Zealand. I cannot see the connection between the two. This is a very specific primary question.

SmithMr SPEAKER Link to this

If the member had listened to the Minister’s answer, he would have noticed that the Minister referred to what had happened in New Zealand at the same time, which does open the question more widely, including opening it for Opposition members. So the question is in order.

JoyceHon STEVEN JOYCE Link to this

New Zealand went into recession months before most other developed countries, due to serious and damaging imbalances that built up in the economy under the previous Government. Among these were a massive blowout in Government spending, rampant inflation, which peaked at 5.1 percent at the end of 2008, a credit binge that will take years to unwind, and decade-high interest rates—all of which strangled our export sector, and all of which the Opposition does not want to know about. It appears Labour has learnt nothing from that recession, as it still seems prepared to pump up spending and pump up debt.

CunliffeHon David Cunliffe Link to this

I raise a point of order, Mr Speaker. Not only is the question marginal but the Minister’s answer is turning into a speech.

SmithMr SPEAKER Link to this

It is up to the Speaker to determine whether the Minister is taking too long, and I say that the Minister had taken sufficient time, indeed, to answer the question.

CunliffeHon David Cunliffe Link to this

Which aspect of the Australian Government’s comprehensive and well-targeted stimulus package contributed most to Australia’s avoiding going into recession, unlike New Zealand under this National Government?

JoyceHon STEVEN JOYCE Link to this

A number of things prevented Australia from going into recession while New Zealand did. The first is that it did not have the massive blowout in public spending during the 2000s that we had in this country. Secondly, Australia did not have higher marginal tax rates at the lower rates that we had in this country. Thirdly, Australia ran an altogether much more business-friendly policy than was run over the period of the 2000s. Those are just three off the top of my head.

CunliffeHon David Cunliffe Link to this

If Australia is headed for a double-dip recession, can the Minister explain why 36,000 New Zealanders emigrated there in the past year, showing John Key’s promise to stop this brain drain to be yet another cruel hoax?

JoyceHon STEVEN JOYCE Link to this

That is pretty rich, coming from somebody who wants to raise the top tax rates to over 50 percent. The reason people went to Australia in record numbers—

CunliffeHon David Cunliffe Link to this

I raise a point of order, Mr Speaker. There are so many things wrong with that answer that it will take a while—

SmithMr SPEAKER Link to this

If the member does not want that kind of answer, he should not include in his supplementary question language like “cruel hoax”. That just invites the Minister to have a fair bit of licence in how he answers it. I will allow the Minister to finish his answer.

JoyceHon STEVEN JOYCE Link to this

The key point I was making was that that was pretty rich coming from a party that wants to increase top marginal tax rates to encourage the flight of skilled New Zealanders to Australia, just as it did through the 2000s, creating record emigration to Australia from this country.

CunliffeHon David Cunliffe Link to this

I seek leave to table Immigration New Zealand statistics that show that emigration to Australia is now—

SmithMr SPEAKER Link to this

No, no. The member will resume his seat. The member knows that statistical releases are available to all members, and we do not seek leave to table that sort of document.

CunliffeHon David Cunliffe Link to this

I raise a point of order, Mr Speaker. I question your ruling, Mr Speaker, which of course you may be able to repeat. But this is a special document that has been compiled by our own research unit, pulling together a number of difference sources of information to undoubtedly prove the point—

SmithMr SPEAKER Link to this

I beg the honourable member’s pardon. Leave is sought to table a document prepared by the Labour Party research unit on immigration figures. Is there any objection to that? There is objection.

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