8. Hon DAVID CUNLIFFE (Labour—New Lynn) Link to this
to the Minister of Finance
What was the annual rate of GDP growth for the year ended December 2010 projected in Budget 2010, and what was the actual rate of growth for that period according to Statistics New Zealand?
Hon BILL ENGLISHHon David Cunliffe Link to this
Is it correct that his Budget 2010 projected that growth in the first three quarters of 2010, nearly all of which was before the first earthquake, would be 0.8 percent, 0.8 percent, and 1.6 percent respectively, whereas actual growth was 0.7 percent, 0.2 percent, and minus 0.2 percent, which means that by the end of September 2010 economic output was $1.6 billion below the forecast he produced in May 2010?
Yes, growth was slower than expected, and the reason for that was mainly that New Zealanders were saving more than was expected. That is now showing up in a fast-rising household savings rate.
Hon David Cunliffe Link to this
Is it correct that in his 2010 Half Year Economic and Fiscal Update he projected real wages would fall by 0.9 percent in the year to March 2011, which is bad enough, whereas the actual result was a fall in real wages of minus 1.2 percent, according to Statistics New Zealand?
I cannot confirm that. What I can confirm is that as a result of the tax cuts, real after-tax wages have been rising consistently over the last couple of years.
Hon David Cunliffe Link to this
Can he offer any guarantee that the economic and fiscal projections he will present in the Budget on Thursday will be more accurate than those presented in the Budget last year; and is this why, according to a new HorizonPoll, 48.4 percent of people say the country is on the wrong track, and most people disapprove of his Government’s handling of the economy?
It is a bit rich for the member to criticise the accuracy of forecasts and then quote the HorizonPoll as the reason why they are inaccurate. No, I cannot give the member a guarantee. Around the world economists are having trouble in forecasting economic growth. The basic principles, though, of the Government’s plan remain unchanged. They are to rebalance this economy towards savings, exports, and investment, and away from excessive housing speculation and excessive consumption fuelled by debt, which is what happened under his Government.
Hon David Cunliffe Link to this
I seek leave to table Statistics New Zealand and Treasury figures to show the differences between Budget 2010 projections and actual—
Mr SPEAKERThe document the member is seeking to table—I mean, I am not aware of Statistics New Zealand and Treasury documents.
Hon David Cunliffe Link to this
This is a document that has been compiled in my office from those sources.