6. Hon DAVID CUNLIFFE (Labour—New Lynn) Link to this
to the Minister of Finance
Is it the Government’s intention to revise its fiscal forecasts and the timing of reaching fiscal surplus; if so, when will it do so?
Hon BILL ENGLISH (Minister of Finance) Link to this
As the member will know, there is an upcoming event called an election, and Treasury is obliged by law to independently update fiscal forecasts in the Pre-election Economic and Fiscal Update, which must be released 20 to 30 working days before the election. That is where there will be a revised fiscal forecast.
Hon David Cunliffe Link to this
Will the Pre-election Economic and Fiscal Update include a downward revision in the protected sales revenue from his proposed privatisation policy, given international equity market downturns and the higher cost of the plan, including forgone dividends and sales fees?
Hon David Cunliffe Link to this
Will the Pre-election Economic and Fiscal Update include higher costs of climate change policy?
Again, it is up to Treasury to check whether the Government has made any decisions that would change the Budget forecasts on the emissions trading system. If no decisions have been made, then it will not incorporate any changes into the forecasts.
Hon David Cunliffe Link to this
Mr Speaker, I do not believe that the Minister has addressed the question—
Mr SPEAKERWith respect, the Minister answered the question perfectly. I think he said that if any Government decision had been made on climate change policy, Treasury would pick that up, and if a decision had not been made, Treasury would not.
Hon David Cunliffe Link to this
The point of order is that he is the Minister responsible for the very policy he is delegating to Treasury—
If the member had listened to an earlier answer—in fact, the answer to the primary question—the member would have detected the Minister saying that Treasury conducts an independent update of the fiscal and economic position. Therefore the Minister cannot tell with detail what Treasury is going to do. The law requires that.
Hon David Cunliffe Link to this
Is it the Minister’s intention to advise Treasury of any changes in the area of climate change that might have fiscal implications for the Government’s Budget aggregates?
Hon David Cunliffe Link to this
Given the statement of the Governor of the Reserve Bank today that the high level of the New Zealand dollar is having a dampening impact on some parts of the tradable sector, does he continue to believe that New Zealand has the best monetary policy in the world; if so, why?
As the member will know, the level of the currency is not the measure of whether the monetary policy framework is a sound one. In our view, the monetary policy framework is sound. We can debate endlessly subtle nuances and changes to that framework, but I doubt whether they would have any impact on the forces that are currently determining the level of the New Zealand dollar.
Amy AdamsThe first set of forecasts I received from Treasury in late 2008 showed that a continuation of the previous Government’s policies would have resulted in deficits for ever, and debt increasing to 60 percent of GDP and never reducing. This would certainly have put us, by now, in the same kind of category as Greece, with probably the same kinds of problems.
The latest forecasts show a considerable improvement. These were released in May with the Budget, and they show New Zealand getting back to surplus in 2014-15, rather than the endless deficits under the previous Government’s policies, and net debt peaking at below 30 percent of GDP instead of exceeding 60 percent of GDP. By 2015 we will have borrowed $40 billion less than we would have needed in order to continue Labour’s policies.